Tropical Depression Forms in Caribbean, Will Become Hurricane Delta, Impact Northern Gulf Coast Late This Week

The convection associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone 26 is increasing tonight and the system has become a tropical depression.

It will eventually become Tropical Storm Delta by Monday. The oceanic heat content over the northwestern Caribbean, where the storm will track, is very high, and a period of rapid intensification is possible late on Monday.

The storm should cross the western tip of Cuba Tuesday night as at least a category one hurricane. It will proceed to the central Gulf by Wednesday night and start to turn to the north ahead of an approaching trough. Top winds are expected to be 90 mph by then, and of course, could be stronger. There could be some weakening as the storm approaches the coast and moves over cooler water, but the upper wind setup could arrest that weakening trend, and we could even see strengthening in the hours before landfall, like with Sally.

Landfall should be somewhere on the coat between Lake Charles, LA, and Pensacola on Friday, but most likely between Morgan City and Mobile.

The system will bring dangerous winds, deadly storm surge, and flooding rains to a large part of the Gulf Coast. Needless to say, all interests along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Northwest Florida need to pay close attention to the latest information on this system through the week ahead.